The wisdom of crowds

I may get hooked on Media Predict, the new web site that lets its users predict the success of books, movies and music.  In the case of books, the measure of success is whether the book proposal will get a deal.  For movies, it’s what the opening weekend box office revenues will be.  As a consumer, I love the idea of weighing in on books prior to their being published and I already bet against “The Anxious Brain”.  As a somewhat cynical marketer, I have reservations that the system will be gamed.  If I were an aspiring author, I’d have everyone I know, from grampa on down, give me a vote of confidence at Media Predict.  It’s no worse than those glowing book reviews on Amazon obviously written by a friend of the author.  And it may actually be less bad – once Media Predict has tens of thousands of “traders”, the ability to skew the results will diminish.  After all, my own intentions are honorable.

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